The Size of the Wisconsin Tea Party

Earlier this week a pair of Tea Party groups released the results of respective stray polls that showed Dave Westlake wasting Ron Johnson among their memberships. Both of these groups are headed by signers of an earlier press release that essentially told Ron Johnson to lay off the claim of the Tea Party mantle.

It's hardly a good sample size, but it's a place to start.

The results of the straw polls aren't nearly as interesting as what they say about the size of these groups. Here's the straw poll data from the Madison 9/12 Project:
Wisconsin 9/12 Project Straw Poll
In all likelihood no more than 20 people participated in the straw poll. The tallies for governor, for example, are all divisible by 5 (100%/5 = 20).

But, you might ask, how do I explain the funky remainders behind the tallies for Lt. Gov.? Simple, only 19 people voted for that office.

Brett Davis: 6/19 = 31.57%
Ben Collins: 5/19 = 26.31%
Undecided: 8/19 = 42.105%

The Northwoods Patriots has far less information to work with.
Northwoods Patriots Straw Poll Results
The only real figures of any value they release are:

Dave Westlake: 98%
Ron Johnson: 2%

I think it's safe to assume that we're dealing with a voting universe of 50 people here (I'm not going to do the math).

When we average out the two figures we get 35. If we can assume that there are maybe 200 tea party groups in the state that would mean there are about 7000 tea partiers in Wisconsin, or roughly the size of the gang that shows up to the tax day Tea Parties in Madison. Over 2.9 million people in Wisconsin voted in the last election -- 7000 people represents an almost negligible sliver of the total electorate in the state.

Now if these 7000 people prove to be invaluable campaign volunteers and tireless activists for their cause, then they can have an enormous multiplier effect, but there's no evidence yet they are ready to do the leg work required to earn them a spot at the table and until they do no should have to genuflect at the tea party altar.

Silly Me...

You know, it just occurred to me why Team Johnson is putting such a big emphasis on fund-raising this week: the second quarter reporting period ends tonight at midnight.

The campaign will want to look like it's in good financial health and spending a few days shaking down donors is a pretty good way to get that job done.

This also means we get our first look at the behind the scenes spending of the campaign in a few weeks! Woo-hoo!

Tim Pawlenty Wants You to Ante Up for Ron Johnson

There's a lot of news to cover today and to be honest a lot of it's going to have to wait until later, but for now I bring you today's fundraising ask from the Ron Johnson campaign, brought to by Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty:
Tim Pawlenty Fundraising Email for the Ron Johnson for U.S. Senate Campaign

A couple of interesting things to note here:

• No letterhead. Unlike previous emails Team Johnson removed the green campaign graphic from the top of the page in deference to their guest emailer. Pawlenty is running for President in 2012 and this is a pretty good way of getting his brand out there. Nixing the campaign logos is a good way of reinforcing the fact that this is a Tim Pawlenty email, not a necessarily a Ron Johnson email.

• Pawlenty does not use his title in his sign-off. Too incumbent-y, perhaps?

• The Governor uses more cutting imagery than 15 year-old emo chick's bad poetry.

• Pawlenty apparently uses Japanese characters to sign his name.

• The MasterCard "Priceless" shtick probably would have worked better as a web video ... or at least it would worked better than this web video:

(Possibly the Best) Headlines of the Damned (Ever)

Tonight's edition of Headlines of the Damned is brought to you by the Dublin Evening Herald:

This has been another edition of Headlines of the Damned.

[via FD]

PPP Poll Press Release + Crosstabs!

As noted earlier, PPP relaesed the crosstabs of the Johnson/Feingold poll [via Jake].

Sexy stuff!

PPP Release WI

PPP Poll -- Feingold: 45%, Johnson: 43%

This will probably give Charlie Sykes morning wood tomorrow, and the talking point from the GOP will be that unlike the previous Rasmussen polls, PPP doesn't get labeled as a "Republican polling firm" by detractors.

That said the big number, as noted by Teagan Goddard, is just how unknown Johnson is:

Johnson is largely unknown to voters in the state. 62% have no opinion of him.

That means Johnson is largely undefined in voters' minds. After a few months of campaigning he will no longer be "not Feingold," but something else. Either he'll be more or less attractive than the incumbent, but right now all this poll really says is that nobody knows who Ron Johnson is just yet.

MORE: Damn, I'm good.

Ron Johnson's Microsite Fail

The RJC is touting a new microsite this morning: www.feingoldcard.com:



I guess this qualifies as the first overt negative act of the campaign and one designed primarily as a fund-raising and information collection tool. The lede of the first blog post reads:

It’s time to stop government spending! Senator Russ Feingold has used his “Fein Gold Card” that is funded by your taxpayer dollars to raise the national debt to over 13 trillion dollars, and it continues to skyrocket daily.

Which is boilerplate GOP rhetoric that really doesn't apply to Feingold, given his extensive history as a deficit hawk.

The campaign is trying to raise $20,000 in less than 48 hours ... on top of the three high dollar fundraisers being held this week.

The mixed message here is that the campaign is getting hit on both sides by allegations that it doesn't/won't have the funds to run the campaign it promised. Last week Terrence Wall expressed doubt that Johnson could self fund after filing for an extension for his personal financial disclosures and this week OWN crunched hypothetical numbers:
Ron Johnson Tax Numbers from One Wisconsin
I skeptical of these allegations, but it does seem clear that the campaign is devoting this week to raising money. I just don't think a poorly promoted microsite that appears out of nowhere with a mixed message is a very good way of doing it.

The End of Comity in the Senate?

Here's an interesting chart over at NPR.com:

CURRENT SENATE SENIORITY

1. Daniel Inouye (D-Haw.) — Jan. 9, 1963

2. Pat Leahy (D-Vt.) — Jan. 3, 1975

3. Dick Lugar (R-Ind.) — Jan. 4, 1977

4. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) — Jan. 4, 1977

5. Max Baucus (D-Mont.) — Dec. 15, 1978

6. Thad Cochran (R-Miss.) — Dec. 27, 1978

7. Carl Levin (D-Mich.) — Jan. 15, 1979

8. Chris Dodd (D-Conn.) — Jan. 5, 1981

9. Arlen Specter (D-Pa.) — Jan. 5, 1981

10. Charles Grassley (R-Iowa) — Jan. 5, 1981

Here's what it was just prior to the 2008 election:

1. Robert Byrd (D-W.Va.) — Jan. 7, 1959

2. Edward Kennedy (D-Mass.) — Nov. 7, 1962

3. Inouye

4. Ted Stevens (R-Alaska) — Dec. 24, 1968

5. Joe Biden (D-Del.) — Jan. 3, 1973

6. Leahy

7. Lugar

8. Hatch

9. Baucus

10. John Warner (R-Va.) — Jan. 2, 1979

Anything jump out at you?

Daniel Inouye is the last of the pre-Watergate members of the Senate. This crew of legislators have been historically more cordial, collegial and often bipartisan than the gang that followed it. They were old school. Since Dodd and Specter are on their way out, the next two Senators with the most seniority are Bingaman and John Kerry.

In short order the Senate is going to be populated with elder statesmen who came of professional age in a very partisan atmosphere. This was the gang that came of age during the Robert Bork, Clearance Thomas and Iran-Contra hearings, the Culture Wars and Impeachment trials of the '90s. It'll be interesting to see if age inspires them to take up the "wise man" mantle, the kind of legislators who put the institution before party and politics.

My expectations are low.

Wallgate Hits TV

In Green Bay:

How Many Hotel Rooms, Again?

This is why you do not try to disprove absurd statements with "evidence," but keep the burden of proof on the accuser.

When Terrence Wall's accusation of corruption at the WisGOP convention broke the Johnson campaign release hotel invoices to various media outlets. WisPolitics reported:

Johnson’s campaign manager released a copy of an invoice for five rooms Johnson booked at the Hyatt Regency Milwaukee, the site of the convention.

One room was booked for Ron Johnson and his wife, Jane. The other four were occupied by campaign volunteers and staff, the campaign said.

Got that? 5 rooms.

But the Journal Sentinel reported:

But [Wall] provided no evidence of his allegations, and the other candidates in the race said they had no knowledge of the claims. The manager of the Johnson campaign quickly released electronic copies of records from the Hyatt Regency Hotel in Milwaukee that showed the Johnson campaign bought six hotel rooms on the two nights of the convention on May 21 and 22.

Now we're up to 6 rooms, a figure supported by the State Journal.

I'm going to chalk this up to error by one of the reporters, but discrepancies like this are the reason why the campaign was better served attacking the messenger and demanding that he be the one to offer proof rather than trying to outright disprove the accusations itself. If the "vote buying" didn't happen, which is likely the case, then there nothing Johnson can do to prove a negative.

Of course, if Johnson told WisPolitics one thing and the MJS another, then we have another issue on our hands.

I Dare Not Imagine the Number of Swirlies this Kid's Recieved

The American Thinker really must not think very much of its readers by trying to pawn this article off as being "written" by an 11 year-old.

Misandrist? Yeah that's in every 5th grader's vocabulary...

Dave Westlake Press Release

Westlake for U.S. Senate Press Release

The Wrath of Wall

There's a lot to digest from Terrance Wall's interview with WTDY, so let's get started.

Packing conventions with one's supporters is a time-honored tradition and just good politics, so I have a hard time sympathizing with Wall on this issue. Try visiting the Iowa GOP convention the year before a Presidential election and then finding fault with springing for a few hotel rooms. I have no idea why this a big deal.

As for "intimidating" voters ... well, one man's intimidation is another's "horse-trading," also a pretty regular feature of political gatherings since time immemorial. Political conventions aren't just organizing seminars and late night stops to the titty bar with old chums from the College Republicans. There's some work that needs to be done as well and sometimes that work involves cracking skulls.

In fact, most of Wall's accusations seem like sour grapes over the fact that Wall himself was never really able to set the world on fire when he was in the race, so I wouldn't put too much faith in the "vote buying" and "corruption" accusations. Did Wall himself not have a "hospitality suite" at the convention? Was beer not free there? Does that qualify as "buying people off"?

Let's not pretend for a second that the endorsement vote at the state GOP convention is some kind of sacred institution.

The accusation that seems most damning is that Johnson is actually an "inside man," that he's not the outsider he appears to be, but really an old school Country Club Republican, who thinks he can spend his way to victory. Johnson's implosion among the tea baggers probably set off enough alarms among the extreme right to plant that suspicion's seed. Wall's accusations will just give those suspicions credence. One thing I've noticed today is that the Wall's accusations are appearing on several Tea Party blogs (here, here, here, and here). Some of these blogs are open Westlake supporters, but it certainly seems to have struck a chord within the tea party set.

Now here's the most interesting aspect of the story: the Johnson campaign's completely impotent response:

Johnson’s campaign manager released a copy of an invoice for five rooms Johnson booked at the Hyatt Regency Milwaukee, the site of the convention.

One room was booked for Ron Johnson and his wife, Jane. The other four were occupied by campaign volunteers and staff, the campaign said.

A hotel invoice? Are you fucking kidding me? You call that rapid response?

When someone makes an accusation of this nature on a political campaign you come out swinging. You dismiss Wall as a sore loser and demand that he produce proof or otherwise shut the hell up -- you do not, repeat, DO NOT dig into your pockets and pull out a few receipts like you're taking the accusation seriously. This is PR 101. (This is better, but the push-back has to also come from the campaign itself, not just WisGOP surrogates.)

More importantly, the Johnson campaign should have never let it get to the point where Wall felt like he needed to unload to a liberal talk radio host. Wall should have been approached shortly after he dropped out and brought into the fold in some minor way precisely to prevent something like this from happening. It's pretty obvious no such meeting took place. That's a basic part of political etiquette that was ignored. Now the GOP has to deal with someone who's gone off the reservation. As a consequence, this is the third time Wall has burned Johnson -- the sign video and the abuse victims bill testimony being the other two -- since the convention.

These are not small mistakes -- they're big ones. Russ Feingold does not make mistakes on the campaign trail and in order to beat him, neither can his opponents. Shit like this will sink Johnson's campaign before he ever has a chance to define himself or talk about the issues. I don't care what the polls say now, right now the Johnson campaign looks like the captain still hasn't gotten his sea legs and his crew is on their maiden voyages.

Again, the problem here is not accusations of "funny business" at the state GOP convention, the problem is the damage it does to Johnson's image as an outsider. That's not just going to be a problem in the GOP primary. It'll be next to impossible to beat Feingold if he emerges from a battle with Westlake perceived as a puppet to the party.

Did Frank Lasee take a Piss in a Voter's Backyard?

Apparently:

We are proud to name former Wisconsin assemblyman and current state senate candidate Frank Lasee, who, according to one of our listeners, took a leak in the backyard of the home of a Chilton woman after leaving a campaign flier in her mailbox.

This is definitely one way to mount a comeback.

Ron Johnson in The Hill

Profile here.

Is 2010 the Best Sports Year Ever (Redux)?

We asked this question back in April and since then the sports world has given us:

• An exciting NHL playoffs capped by a great Stanley Cup finals

• A seven game Celtics/Lakers NBA final

• 2 perfect games and 1 instantly infamous near miss

• The longest tennis match ever played

• The most memorable World Cup for American soccer

Seriously, I know it's only June but this has been just a crazy year for awesome sports spectacles. I can't think of another period of time that had so many memorable

Ron Johnson Email #6

The Johnson Campaign tries to turn a Feingold fundraiser into an excuse for supporters to fork over some cash:

Ron Johnson for U.S. Senate Email #6

By the way, Johnson will be attending three "high dollar" fundraisers in Oshkosh, Sheboygan and Milwaukee next week.

Michael Bay to make the Milwaukee Art Museum Transform into a Giant Asshole Pundit Robot

Scott Milfred has a snotty editorial in the State Journal on the news that a scene from next summer's installment of the Transformers franchise will be filmed in Milwaukee, which he seems to believe is proof that Hollywood is stumbling over itself trying to film in Wisconsin sans film tax credits:

Our movie-loving lieutenant governor was quoted in Wednesday's State Journal once again lamenting an end to fat state subsidies for Hollywood films.

"We are really not in this game anymore," Lt. Gov. Barbara Lawton said. "The (film) industry waits and hopes that Wisconsin will again be open for business under a new governor."

It only took two days for Lawton's dramatic story line to fall apart.

That's right folks, to pieces ...

Visit Milwaukee on Friday announced "Transformers 3" will shoot "a pivotal scene" at the Milwaukee Art Museum and at the old Tower Automotive site on Milwaukee's north side the week of July 12. The major motion picture will bring a cast and crew of about 150 to Cream City.

And here's the best part: state taxpayers won't have to shell out a dime.

So apparently we don't need tax credits, just $129 million worth of iconic building designed by the world's preeminent architect. They have lots of those in Stevens Point. Maybe we can get HR Giger to transform downtown Racine into a post-apocalyptic hellscape so that the next installment of the Terminator can film here?

Here's the deal: Transformers 2 cost $200 million to make. Transformers 3 will cost between $200-$250 million. Franchise movies with that kind of budget don't need tax credits because they will gross $800+ million. If Michael Bay wants to shoot at the Milwaukee Art Museum there isn't a financier in Hollywood who's going to tell him to bring back his receipts. It's a guaranteed money-maker.

So this is more an artistic accident than proof that Hollywood doesn't need a little incentive to shoot films in places like Wisconsin with its endless rural settings covered in snow half the year. When entire movies start to be produced in state, then I'll start to sing another tune. Until then Wisconsin is better served treating the whole film industry like a biotech start-up.

It's great that the Transformers circus is coming to town. I'm sure the MAM will look great through the lens of Bay's low-angled panning camera ... but this is an anomaly. Bay's not coming here because Wisconsin has talent, he coming here because we have a building. He'll be here for a week and then it's back to Malibu to slice up all the footage with attention deficit quick edits to make a storyline with a nonsensical plot; but at least we'll get to point at the big screen next summer, nudge the person sitting next to us and say through a stupid grin "Hey, that's where I live!"

[Semi-related aside: I'm going to put my money on a script that actually makes the MAM turn into some kind of robot. You know, because the brise soleil already moves and shit...]

There are millions of reasons why Wisconsin should invest in a film industry infrastructure with tax credits. In the past we've suggested that the credits died for political, not economic, reasons and there's really been nothing to dissuade us from that suggestion since. Wisconsin will benefit from film and it'd be great to see the credits come back soon.

... And regardless of what you may think of any of this business, I demand credit for not titling this post "Film Tax Credits: More than Meets the Eye."

Kane Contra Murray

Eugene Kane opines on the work of Charles Murray, comparing him to Jeremiah Wright and Louis Farrakhan. Unfortunately, it's not exactly an apt analogy.

Farrakhan and Wright have been largely marginalized by the mainstream Left. Murray, on the other hand, is celebrated and fiercely defended by his colleagues on the Right. Murray holds an endowed chair at one of conservatism's flagship think tanks. He publishes frequently in glossy magazines, in the editorial sections of the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal and contributes to The Corner at NRO. In many ways, this makes Murray's bleak outlook on society more insidious.

We alluded to this earlier, but for anyone looking for concise rebuttal of Murray's work, please take the time to read Stephen Jay Gould's review that appeared in the New Yorker shortly after The Bell Curve's publication. It's something of a legendary piece of criticism and demonstrates rather devastatingly just how baseless Murray's thought is.

The Ron Johnson Campaign's Snippy Press Release

The Ron Johnson for Senate campaign unleashed a pissy press release following a swipe from Team Feingold following a regrettable statement at a forum with fellow GOP candidate Dave Westlake. The two candidates decided to fall in line behind BP ... while on camera ... just days after Joe Barton made an ass of himself. It's basically an attack ad waiting to be made.

Anyway, the Feingold gang hit back with this press release which was answered by the press release below:
Ron Johnson for U.S. Senate Press Release
It's not on the RJ.com web site.

By the way, if Team Johnson thinks this is an issue that's going to stay in the Wisconsin press, they're wrong.

A new Rasumussen Poll

Take it or leave it:

The poll by Rasmussen Reports showed Feingold with 46% and Johnson with 45%.

[...]

Johnson is running in the Republican primary against Watertown businessman Dave Westlake. Feingold, of Middleton, drew 47% to Westlake's 41%, according to the poll.

Our Bad

Yeah, so this week's city council live chat didn't go as planned.

These things will happen.

Oshkosh Common Council Meeting Live Chat!!!

Due to events that are outside of my control, I can't guarantee that anyone who wants to jump into the live chat this week will be able to do so after 7:00 PM this evening ... unless they're on Twitter and use hashtag #ocat (then you don't need the administrator to approve your first comment -- that's just the way this live chat tool works).

We'll try and do better next meeting.

Anyway, sign in early and try not to log out of your computer during the meeting, otherwise you might not be able to jump back in. It's entirely possible the chat could stay live even hours after the meeting's over. We'll get to it when we get to it.

The Council's agenda is below.



Oshkosh Common Council Meeting Agenda -- 6/22/10

A Johnson/Westlake Forum Primer

RedState.com's Pompadour has the third part of his Ron Johnson Rock River Tea Party "vetting session" commentary up.

This time around Pompadour levels a few salient criticisms, but most of the piece is 2000 words of Westlake fluffing, not unlike the prior installments.

We're waiting on the video from the Johnson/Westlake forum in Brookfield this morning and have a feeling how each candidate performed in that session dictate the next week or so of intraconservative wrangling.

MORE: The forum is now up on WisconsinEye, but fuck if I know how to load it. Seriously, either my computer is for shit or WE is entirely useless. Either result will be extremely frustrating.

"The Senator from Sykes"

Yesterday was a pretty brutal day in the local press for Ron Johnson's campaign.