Monday, July 25, 2011

Scott Walker's Free Fall Among Female Voters

We Ask America is one of those newish polling firms that shows up every now and then with a Wisconsin-related poll and it's most recent is probably the most interesting it's conducted to date. Here's a take-away from the poll:
As we’ve seen before, there are few sitting on the public-opinion sidelines when it comes to Walker or the president. However, there appears to be a pronounced gender gap, with men siding more for Walker and against Obama. This gap is wider than we’ve witnessed in presidential approval ratings in other states–but Wisconsin has always marched to it’s own drum beat. In past privately conducted Wisconsin-based polls, we’ve seen men’s shift of opinion precede those by  women, but there have been some exceptions to that trend so it is unclear that will happen here. Locals at least partially attribute the continued bad numbers among females to the governor’s war with unions representing teachers. [Emphasis in the original.]
And here are the numbers:

Scott Walker45.15%52.62%3.92%
By Gender


[Sorry for the crooked labeling -- copying and pasting these things are a pain.]

Walker is tanking with women and hard. This is an enormous problem for Walker since last fall he only lost Wisconsin women by 3% during an election when women accounted for only 50% of voters. (As we've noted before, women made up 53% of voters in 2006.) Walkers numbers with women are so bad that only a repeal of the 19th Amendment could give him a chance at surviving recall, even if the gender split among voters remains the same as it did in 2010.

We've been harping on the importance of women voters in Wisconsin for a few years now. We may have been wrong about specific female candidates, but we sure as hell haven't been wrong about female voters. If women show up to the polls, Scott Walker is doomed; as long as they don't, he has a better than fighting chance.

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