The Evolution of Paul Ryan's "Tipping Point"

That's why John Kerry has to preach the politics of division, of envy and resentment. That's why they talk so much about two Americas. But class warfare is not an economic policy. And the politics of division will not make America stronger, and it will not lead to prosperity.

I say to them: Anger is not a governing philosophy.

Instead, we offer a more hopeful vision to America by reaffirming our party's commitment to freedom and opportunity for all.

That was Rep. Paul Ryan speaking at the 2004 RNC convention, right after he lavished praise on President Bush's tax cuts -- tax cuts that were enacted after Iraq and Medicare Part D, government projects that will end up costing in excess of $2 trillion worth of debt and which Ryan supported.

But following the 2008 election Ryan changed is tune. Less than a week before Obama took office, Ryan offered a glimpse at his a how he was planning on framing the next legislative session in an op-ed piece in the Wall Street Journal. Since then Ryan's warned of a tipping point in many of his speeches and commentaries. Here's an evolution of the phrase:

"Beware the Big Government Tipping Point," Wall Street Journal (1/16/09):

Nationalizing health care will be profoundly detrimental to the quality of American medicine. In the name of cost control, the government would make private investment in medical innovation far riskier, and thus delay the development of potentially lifesaving treatments.

It will also put America on a glide path toward European-style socialism. We need only look to Great Britain and elsewhere to see the effects of socialized health care on the broader economy. Once a large number of citizens get their health care from the state, it dramatically alters their attachment to government. Every time a tax cut is proposed, the guardians of the new medical-welfare state will argue that tax cuts would come at the expense of health care -- an argument that would resonate with middle-class families entirely dependent on the government for access to doctors and hospitals.

Of course, this health-care plan is occurring against our particular fiscal backdrop: Without major reform, our federal entitlement programs will soon double the size of government. The result will be a crushing burden of debt and taxes.

In short, we may be approaching a tipping point for democratic capitalism.

CPAC Keynote (2/29/09):

This phony stimulus hastens the steady march toward an irreversible "tipping point" in our democracy that threatens to radically alter the relationship between America's citizens and our government.

This "tipping point" has long loomed on our horizon in the form of $56 trillion in promised entitlement spending that we haven't funded. That $56 trillion IOU will require our kids to pay double the taxes we face - a level of government confiscation that endangers their future prosperity.

"A Transformative Health Care Alternative," Racine Journal Times (5/22/09):

The Obama plan promises change and progress, but it is based on old ideas. For the past 50 years, the Left has promised that a little more government intervention and spending will fix health care. If Washington can effectively run a health program like Obama's public option, why are Medicare, Medicaid, and other federal health programs in such disrepair?

Today, federal and state government controls about 60 percent of our health care economy, which has helped create the chaotic system Americans loathe. Congress and the Obama administration are now on a path to finish the job and move us past the tipping point into a Canadian or UK-style government-run system.

Remarks to the Racine County Economic Development Corp. Annual Meeting (5/28/09):

My greatest concern is that if we should choose the latter path, our nation will quickly reach what I have called a “tipping point,” where a majority of our people are receiving so much in government benefits that it will become almost impossible to reverse course and return to the path of freedom and self-reliance. Stagnation replaces growth…dependency smothers initiative and entrepreneurship…this would replace the American way of life that we hold dear. This future threatens the American ideal that previous generations poured their sweat and blood into building and preserving, and that current generations of Americans are responsible for advancing.

"Free Market Democracy at Risk -- And what We Must do to Save it," Remarks to the Economic Club of Minnesota (11/9/09):

Democratic capitalism is not just an economic system or a political system. It’s a culture – the way of life fit for free men and women. But I know the Congressional majority leaders. They are imitating other models: “Progressivism,” third way, corporatism, social welfare state, crony capitalism. Whatever the name, it is very different from the principles that made this country exceptional. European versions create bureaucracies intimately involved in the details of running their enterprises. They may dictate salary levels—think White House “pay czars.” They may govern businesses directly under nationalized ownership or management—think General Motors. They may do so indirectly by rewarding firms that cultivate bureaucratic connections instead of seeking consumers’ approval for innovations and other decisions. Markets that are truly free have wide-open doors of entry. Innovation overturns established firms, and bureaucrats don’t like unpredictability. Under these models, the doors of entry are closed to newcomers while government agents develop so-called “partnerships” with a few large entities.

We are moving swiftly toward a “tipping point,” where the majority of people pay little or no taxes but become dependents on government benefits. Tax cuts are virtually out of the question because more people have a stake in the welfare state than in entrepreneurism. Citizens who had once governed themselves become supplicants of a bureaucratic state, surrendering liberty in return for security. Whatever you call this, it isn’t free market democracy.

"A GOP Roadmap for America's Future," Wall Street Journal (1/26/10):

The difference between the Road Map and the Democrats' approach could not be more clear. From the enactment of a $1 trillion "stimulus" last February to the current pass-at-all costs government takeover of health care, the Democratic leadership has followed a "progressive" strategy that will take us closer to a tipping point past which most Americans receive more in government benefits than they pay in taxes—a European-style welfare state where double-digit unemployment becomes a way of life.

Floor speech before HCR vote (3/24/10):

My friends, we are fast approaching a tipping point where more Americans depend on the federal government than on themselves for their livelihoods – a point where we, the American people, trade in our commitment and our concern for our individual liberties in exchange for government benefits and dependencies.

[...]

As we march toward this tipping point of dependency, we are also accelerating toward a debt crisis – a debt crisis that is the result of politicians of the past making promises we simply cannot afford to keep. Déjà vu all over again.

Hillsdale speech (1/15/10):

America today is not as far from this tipping point as we might think. While exact and precise measures cannot be made, there are estimates that in 2004, 20 percent of households in the U.S. were receiving about 75 percent of their income from the federal government, and that another 20 percent were receiving nearly 40 percent of their income from federal programs. All in all, about 60 percent of U.S. households were receiving more government benefits and services, measured in dollars, than they were paying back in taxes. It has also been estimated that President Obama's first budget alone raises this level of “net dependency” to 70 percent.

"A Roadmap for America's Future 2.0," Racine Journal Times (2/2/10):

The difference between the Roadmap and the Democrats' approach could not be more clear. From the enactment of a $1 trillion "stimulus" last February to the current pass-at-all costs government takeover of health care, the Democratic leadership has followed a "progressive" strategy that will take us closer to a tipping point past which most Americans receive more in government benefits than they pay in taxes—a European-style welfare state where double-digit unemployment becomes a way of life.

"Keynesian policies wrong prescription for U.S. economy," The Hill (2/2/10):

The U.S. already has drawn perilously close to this “tipping point.” The Tax Foundation estimates that approximately 60 percent of Americans receive more in benefits and services from the government than they pay in taxes. The president’s fiscal agenda raises net reliance on government to 70 percent of the population.

"Roadmap for America's Future":

Now America is approaching a “tipping point” beyond which the Nation will be unable to change course – and this will lead to disastrous fiscal consequences, and an erosion of economic prosperity and the American character itself. The current administration and Congress are propelling the Nation to the brink of this precipice.

[...]

If the government continues following the “progressive” ideology now prevailing in Washington, America will increasingly resemble a European welfare-state – a society in which the majority of the people pay little or no taxes but grow dependent on government benefits; where tax reduction is impossible because more people have a stake in the welfare state than in free enterprise; where permanent high unemployment is a way of life; and where the spirit of risk-taking is smothered by a thick web of regulations and mandates from an all-providing centralized government.

The U.S. already has drawn perilously close to this “tipping point.” The Tax Foundation estimates that today 60 percent of Americans receive more in benefits and services from the government than they pay in taxes. The President’s fiscal agenda exacerbates this problem, raising the net reliance on government from 60 percent to 70 percent. Another analysis shows that from 1950 through 2007, the share of the population reliant on the government rose from 28.7 percent to 58.2 percent (see Figure 3). The study predicted that even without enactment of legislation such as cap-and-trade and health care, the share of the population dependent on the government will rise to 67.3 percent by 2018.