Sunday, November 27, 2011

Does United Wisconsin Already have Half the Signatures Required to Recall Scott Walker?

So says Nelson Goodson (via DW):
After the Black Friday statewide signature petition drive, recall organizers projected that most likely they have surpassed the halfway mark of the 270,000 signatures needed or will reach the halfway target total within days to force an election recall against Governor Walker.

Within the first week of the Walker recall, organizers and volunteers collected at least 105,000 to 107,000 petition signatures within four days of the initial start date (Nov. 15).
Incidentally, the second week of the signature collection period this spring was the most bountiful week of the whole 60 days. Back in March, the Dems were able to collect 45% of their target in 12 days. However, they needed 11 more days to break the 50% threshold. Once they were over the hump, the signatures rolled in at a much slower trickle.

That's probably not going to happen this time around. Last spring, Dems were collecting in reliably GOP districts. This time they can mine Democratic strongholds too. This brings up an interesting dilemma for the Dems: if they have reached the halfway point, then at the current pace they will collect the required signatures on December 9th or 10th, giving them a month to continue to collect signatures. The Dems might want to continue to gather signatures, if for no other reason then to identify their voters.

1,128,159 people voted for Scott Walker in 2010. At the current collection rate Dems will reach 1,350,000 signatures by January 15th. If those people are guaranteed votes against Walker, then he will recalled. That kind of opposition is just too much for anyone to overcome in Wisconsin. That's probably not going to happen, since there will likely be a drop-off in the collection rate as the effort continues, but it goes to show that there's real benefit to collecting names.

Just as an aside: the anti-recall TV spots Walker's people are running make no sense to me at all. They're not converting anyone, they are reminding opponents that the recall is on and the two women who are featured in them come off as almost whining. I'm not sure how they're effective -- particularly the "sour grapes" spot -- and it just goes to prove that Scott Walker seems incapable of doing anything without pissing off the opposition unnecessarily.

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