Now Hoffman NEEDS to Win UPDATED: Fuck It, this Race is Just Waaaaaaayyyy too Bizarre to Mean Anything in the Larger Context

Because there will no acceptable excuses if he loses.

And here's cold water on Hoffman's hot streak: From Nate Silver:

Certainly, it would seem to help Hoffman if Scozzafava decided to endorse him -- but only 15 percent of Scozzafava's voters had a favorable view of Hoffman, so they aren't going to come over easily, if at all.

More here.

The number that sticks out for me is that the undecided vote has consistently hoovered around 20%. That seems odd for all the attention that the campaign has gotten. One would imagine that voters would have made up their minds by now, but that doesn't seem to be the case for a lot of them.

One of the reasons for this could be that Hoffman doesn't seem to be lighting the world on fire:

He showed up for just one debate, citing scheduling conflicts on other occasions. In an interview with the editorial board of my old employer, the Watertown Daily Times, Hoffman was asked about a new super-highway that had been proposed years ago for the district but needs federal funding. No opinion. Where did he stand on the controversial idea of dredging the St. Lawrence River, which forms the district's border with Canada? No comment. A subsequent editorial in the Daily Times described Hoffman as "flustered and ill at ease" and said he "showed no grasp of the bread-and-butter issues pertinent to district residents." It didn't help that Hoffman brought along former House majority leader (and staunch conservative) Dick Armey with him to the editorial board meeting — Armey called the local issues "parochial" and said the editorial board ambushed his candidate. Hoffman also says he opposes pork-barrel spending, the kind of federal cash infusions a rural, economically depressed, military-heavy area like the North Country depends on.

Right now it's all Hoffman's game to lose and chances are he won't, just don't be surprised if he actually does.

[via Memeorandum]

MORE: Interesting... I'm not inclined to believe that newspaper endorsements influence people, but they can serve as an interesting gauge of how well candidates are able to make their sales pitches. Apparently the Hoffman/Watertown Daily Times interview went as poorly as described above:

Mr. Hoffman is running as an ideologue. If he carries out his pledges on earmarks, taxation, labor law reform and other inflexible positions, Northern New York will suffer. This rural district depends on the federal government for an investment in Fort Drum and its soldiers, environmental protection of our international waterway and the Adirondack Park, and the livelihood of all our dairy farmers across the district, among other support. Our representative cannot be locked into rigid promises and policies that would jeopardize these critical sectors of our economy.

[...]

It is frightening that Mr. Hoffman is so beholden to right-wing ideologues who dismiss Northern New Yorkers as parochial when people here simply want to know how Mr. Hoffman will protect their interests in Washington.

MORE STILL: Jesus, this is just too weird...

EVEN MORE: See what I mean?

"THERE'S A SEX TAPE!!!!!" and Other Absurd Aspects of Bader's "Scoop"

Newspapers covering the Jerry Bader suspension have an odd dilemma on their hands: they obviously don't want to repeat the rumor that Bader broke on the radio, yet at the same time the original "scoop" is a rather significant detail of the story. I don't begrudge editors erring on the side of caution in this case, but I do think it's important to examine just what Bader reported. To understand why, just look at some of the reader comments in the GB PG article -- some of these poor folks have absolutely no idea what was said and are talking about FCC restrictions and other things that are utterly not part of the story.

So sometimes not explaining a story adequately just creates further confusion -- who knew?

I don't think there's anything wrong with repeating the accusations Bader originally made. Not doing so seems to accomplish little more than whitewashing the incident. We all know now that the story was completely false on an utterly absurd level, so repeating what was said shouldn't reflect poorly on Lawton.

But it should reflect poorly on Bader.

So in that spirit, let's take a closer look at just what Bader said on the air, becaus it really was quite shocking and extraordinary. This is the text of the radio report he said on the air, not his blog post (which has since been deleted):

Good afternoon, this is Jerry Bader with a "Bonus Listen." This is a follow up to a story breaking in Wisconsin today, Lieutenant governor Barabra Lawton announcing that she will not be a candidate for the Democratic nomination for Governor: This bombshell dropped about 11:00 this morning. She said for very personal reasons.

I've been working the phones all day Here's what I can tell you: I am reporting this factually.

We talked about this yesterday, but right here Bader is taking off his "commentator" hat and putting on his "reporter" chapeau in no uncertain terms.

It has been a somewhat open secret in Madison for years that Barbara Lawton has an open marriage ...

Accusation 1.) The Lt. Gov. is a swinger.

Let's not pull any punches here. That's what Bader was saying. This sends one's imagination to a number of, well, evocative places (hey, we've seen The Ice Storm -- which sucked, by the way). There's a lurid hint of kink to this accusation beyond the broader notion that the accused has no respect for an institution that most people feel quite strongly about.

And it only gets better!

...and that those relationships she has within the marriage are with other women.

Accusation 2.) The Lt. Gov. is a lesbian swinger.

Cue the gay panic!

One of the things that Bader's "report" does an exceptional job of accomplishing is enhancing Lawton's "otherness" with every detail and arranging them such that each new element is more astonishing than the one before it. Give the guy some credit: it's great story-telling and magnificent communications work -- it's just entirely false.

This has not been a tightly kept secret, it has been known more than in her inner circle.

There's something between the suggestion that Lawton flaunts a disregard for conventional mores and institutions and the insinuation of exhibitionism going on here, but I can't put my finger on it. "Secret" usually connotes a sense of shame ... "open secrets" are weird concepts that deserve far more discussion than should be allowed here. Make of this what you will.

I have learned that somebody was about to expose at least one of those relationships. What I am told from sources is a scorned lover ...

Accusation 3.) "Scorned lover" is essentially a euphemism for "dates crazy people."

It also reinforces the polyamory angle of this whole twisted tale.

... and the phrase that I heard is "attached to the building," in their words, a member of the Doyle administration or a staffer of the Doyle administration, a woman, had a relationship with Lawton, she is scorned, and she was going to expose that relationship.

Accusation 4.) Professional Misconduct

Here Bader moves Lawton's "affair" out of the bedroom and into her elected Office. "Attached to the building" could mean just about anything. It could be a Doyle staffer or admin member ... it could be a legislative staffer or a lobbyist or a even a journalist, but Bader makes the leap that the phrase connotes professional misconduct.

And now for the denouement:

I have been told that she had visual evidence of that relationship.

Accusation 5.) THERE'S A SEX TAPE!!!!

"Visual evidence" -- what else could that mean?

This, incidentally, is the most ridiculous part of Bader's yarn. If there was "visual evidence," why was there no attempt to locate it? This would appear to be the linchpin of the entire story. If Bader could have gotten a hold of said "evidence" then he would have the scoop of the century. If he couldn't track it down, then that's a pretty good indication that he's on a wild goose chase.

Again, this comes from a number of sources in Madison and I am reporting factually that it is a lover scorned.

Again, I am reporting factually that these are the reasons that Barbara Lawton is not running for Governor, that she has had a gay relationship with a woman who is described as attached to the building that would mean a staffer.

Obviously this would raise sexual harassment issues.

Accusation 6.) Sexual Harassment and Abuse of power

And here we have arrived at the crux of the story! What started out as a juicy personal story is now a story about abuses of power and public trust.

Again, this coming at 11:00 this morning -- shocking both sides of the political aisle Barbara Lawton's announcement, nobody saw it coming, she described it as for very personal reasons. Again this comes from multiple sources in Madison. More to come on the show and throughout the day on FaceBook and Twitter and at WTAQ.com.

Again, absolutely none of this turned out to be true.

Just look at the whole package above -- anyone one of these accusations would be enough to send a reasonable person through the roof. Bader wrapped all of them up into one absurd package and delivered it to his listeners. Bader may as well have claimed -- excuse me, "reported factually" -- that Lawton was abducted by aliens, fitted with a mind-control chip in her brain, and is doing the bidding extraterrestrials.

If something like this happened in a print publication everyone from the reporter to the editors would be fired instantly.

The two week suspension doesn't exactly come as much of a surprise. It's WTAQ's way of saying "He can stay if this thing blows over after two weeks." You don't get your credibility back after such an enormous fuck-up and there's no shortage of talent trying to break in to the radio business, so WTAQ is going to have to weigh just how damaged Bader's brand is with its ability to cultivate a replacement quickly.

Just to look at things from his perspective, Bader's in an almost impossible situation here. He could essentially rectify this whole situation by hanging his "sources" out to dry and naming them publically, but doing so would ensure that no one ever speaks to him again. It's an unenviable Catch-22 to be trapped in. Nevertheless, we're having a hard time sympathizing.

The quicker this thing goes away, the more likely Bader gets back on the air. Depending on what you think the responsible resolution to this mess that Bader and Bader alone brought on himself, adjust your outrage accordingly.

Who's the Next Doug Hoffman?

David Ryon, perhaps?

In Ohio’s 16th District, Republicans have been excited that state Senator Steve Stivers is seeking a rematch against Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy. But Ron Paul-supporter David Ryon just announced he was dropping out of the GOP primary in order to run in the general election as the Constitution Party nominee. Why? Because Stivers is pro-choice. “The lines between the two major parties have become blurred to the point they represent the left and right wings of the same party,” Ryon said.

At some point conservatives should seriously start to consider just forming a third party. I doubt they're at that point yet, but being a coalition of minor regional fringe parties isn't a very efficient use of their collective resources.

"THERE'S A SEX TAPE!!!!!" and Other Absurd Aspects of Bader's "Scoop"

Newspapers covering the Jerry Bader suspension have an odd dilemma on their hands: they obviously don't want to repeat the rumor that Bader broke on the radio, yet at the same time the original "scoop" is a rather significant detail of the story. I don't begrudge editors erring on the side of caution in this case, but I do think it's important to examine just what Bader reported. To understand why, just look at some of the reader comments in the GB PG article -- some of these poor folks have absolutely no idea what was said and are talking about FCC restrictions and other things that are utterly not part of the story.

So sometimes not explaining a story adequately just creates further confusion.

I don't think there's anything wrong with repeating the accusations Bader originally made. This seems to accomplish little more than whitewashing the incident. We all know now that the story was completely false on an utterly absurd level, so repeating what was said shouldn't reflect poorly on Lawton.

But it should reflect poorly on Bader.

So in that spirit, let's take a closer look at just what Bader said on the air, becaus it really was quite shocking and extraordinary. This is the text of the radio report he said on the air, not his blog post (which has since been deleted):

Good afternoon, this is Jerry Bader with a "Bonus Listen." This is a follow up to a story breaking in Wisconsin today, Lieutenant governor Barabra Lawton announcing that she will not be a candidate for the Democratic nomination for Governor: This bombshell dropped about 11:00 this morning. She said for very personal reasons.

I've been working the phones all day Here's what I can tell you: I am reporting this factually.

We talked about this yesterday, but right here Bader is taking off his "commentator" hat and putting on his "reporter" chapeau in no uncertain terms.

It has been a somewhat open secret in Madison for years that Barbara Lawton has an open marriage ...

Accusation 1.) The Lt. Gov. is a swinger.

Let's not pull any punches here. That's what Bader was saying. This sends one's imagination to a number of, well, evocative places (hey, we've seen The Ice Storm -- which sucked, by the way). There's a lurid hint of kink to this accusation beyond the broader notion that the accused has no respect for an institution that most people feel quite strongly about.

And it only gets better!

...and that those relationships she has within the marriage are with other women.

Accusation 2.) The Lt. Gov. is a lesbian swinger.

Cue the gay panic!

One of the things that Bader's "report" does an exceptional job of accomplishing is enhancing Lawton's "otherness" with every detail and arranging them such that each new element is more astonishing than the one before it. Give the guy some credit: it's great story-telling and magnificent communications work -- it's just entirely false.

This has not been a tightly kept secret, it has been known more than in her inner circle.

There's something between the suggestion that Lawton flaunts a disregard for conventional mores and institutions and the insinuation of exhibitionism going on here, but I can't put my finger on it. "Secret" usually connotes a sense of shame ... "open secrets" are weird concepts that deserve far more discussion than should be allowed here. Make of this what you will.

I have learned that somebody was about to expose at least one of those relationships. What I am told from sources is a scorned lover ...

Accusation 3.) "Scorned lover" is essentially a euphemism for "dates crazy people."

It also reinforces the polyamory angle of this whole twisted tale.

... and the phrase that I heard is "attached to the building," in their words, a member of the Doyle administration or a staffer of the Doyle administration, a woman, had a relationship with Lawton, she is scorned, and she was going to expose that relationship.

Accusation 4.) Professional Misconduct

Here Bader moves Lawton's "affair" out of the bedroom and into her elected Office. "Attached to the building" could mean just about anything. It could be a Doyle staffer or admin member ... it could be a legislative staffer or a lobbyist or a even a journalist. Bader makes the leap that it phrase connotes professional misconduct.

And now for the denouement:

I have been told that she had visual evidence of that relationship.

Accusation 5.) THERE'S A SEX TAPE!!!!

"Visual evidence" -- what else could that mean?

This, incidentally, is the most ridiculous part of Bader's yarn. If there was "visual evidence," why was there no attempt to locate it? This would appear to be the linchpin of the entire story. If Bader could have gotten a hold of said "evidence" then he would have the scoop of the century. If he couldn't track it down, then that's a pretty good indication that he's on a wild goose chase.

Again, this comes from a number of sources in Madison and I am reporting factually that it is a lover scorned.

Again, I am reporting factually that these are the reasons that Barbara Lawton is not running for Governor, that she has had a gay relationship with a woman who is described as attached to the building that would mean a staffer.

Obviously this would raise sexual harassment issues.

Accusation 5.) Sexual Harassment and Abuse of power

And here we have arrived at the crux of the story! What started out as a juicy personal story is now a story about abuses of power and public trust.

Again, this coming at 11:00 this morning -- shocking both sides of the political aisle Barbara Lawton's announcement, nobody saw it coming, she described it as for very personal reasons. Again this comes from multiple sources in Madison. More to come on the show and throughout the day on FaceBook and Twitter and at WTAQ.com.

Again, absolutely none of this turned out to be true.

Just look at the whole package above -- anyone one of these accusations would be enough to send a reasonable person through the roof. Bader wrapped all of them up into one absurd package and delivered it to his listeners. Bader may as well have claimed -- excuse me, "reported factually" -- that Lawton was abducted by aliens, fitted with a mind-control chip in her brain, and is doing the bidding extraterrestrials.

If something like this happened in a print publication everyone from the reporter to the editors would be fired instantly.

The two week suspension doesn't exactly come as much of a surprise. It's WTAQ's way of saying "He can stay if this thing blows over after two weeks." You don't get your credibility back after such an enormous fuck-up and there's no shortage of talent trying to break in to the radio business, so WTAQ is going to have to weigh just how damaged Bader's brand is with its ability to cultivate a replacement quickly.

Just to look at things from his perspective, Bader's in an almost impossible situation here. He could essentially rectify this whole situation by hanging his "sources" out to dry and naming them publicly, but doing so would ensure that no ever speaks to him again. It's an unenviable Catch-22 to be trapped in. Nevertheless, we're having a hard time sympathizing.

The quicker this thing goes away, the more likely Bader gets back on the air. Depending on what you think the responsible resolution to this mess that Bader and Bader alone brought on himself, adjust your outrage accordingly.

The Literary Offenses of Kyle Maichle (With Apologies to Mark Twain)

I don't ask much from bloggers, but one thing I absolutely demand is a basic acquaintance with grammar. I'm not talking about the finely honed skills of a black belt grammarian, just a causal familiarity with the basics. Now, I usually give a lot of leeway to bloggers, because speed kills online and it's extremely difficult to edit one's own material, but, please for the love of all that's holy, is it too much to ask of someone to know how to use a preposition?

Kyle Maichle apparently does not have such concerns. This kid is in dire need of an editor. Take, for example, his post today. Putting aside, for a moment, that I find his opinion only makes sense in the context of heavy peyote use, just look at how awfully it's written. I have known high school sophomores with a better command of the English language. Every time this kid gets behind a keyboard he may as well be kicking the adorable puppies of America's English teachers.

The thought had crossed our minds to reprise Mark Twain's wonderful example of colleague criticism, but no one's that good. Instead, to help young Kyle out, we've taken the liberty of editing his latest opus with an aim of maintaining as much of his own words as possible. Our corrections are in red, everything else comes from Maichle. Bare in mind that we aren't trying to rewrite these sentences, just clean them up.

Since Last Friday’s front-page article in The Washington Post that denoted Virginia Democratic Gubernatorial nominee Creigh Deeds was thrown under the bus by Team Obama,. This impact can will linger to in states that have an open seat Governor’s race.

This isn't a lede, it's a cry for help. Here Maichle isn't making a statement on the state of contemporary politics, he's admitting to his readers that he only now regrets spending his high school English classes wondering in vain how to get to second base with Sally Jenkins.

A link to the WaPo article would have been nice and just about any verb other than "denoted" would likely be an improvement.

The race for Virginia Governor was is an open seat race after since Tim Kaine was is term-limited under Virginia law. In 2010, 19 of the 39 governor’s races in 2010 will also be open seat races. 10 of these 19 states When looking at the 19 seats that are open, 10 of them were carried by Barack Obama in 2008.

The impact of the Deeds-Obama fallout will come down to one key factor impact the level of involvement the White House will be involved have in picking who will be on the ballot in these 19 states. As it was reported, by Obama Administration officials that they chided Deeds over for not fully utilizing the resources of the White House, and you can bet that the White House’s blessing will come first before the desires of state party chairmen in the critical 19 states on who to put in the ballot.

A key factor to look at is will be the approval rating of the President in key states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Kansas, and Minnesota.

OK, let's just hold on a minute. Oklahoma? Are you fucking kidding me? Oklahoma -- a state so conservative even the water is red?

In a handful of these states, [Which states? -- ed.] the President’s approval rating is below fifty percent. You can Expect the Obama Administration to be highly involved in these states so they can try to boost their approval rating numbers where they are lacking. During the Virginia Governor’s race, A key factor that Creigh Deeds battled, along with his lackluster campaigning style, is Obama’s approval rating being one of the lowest in the country according to SurveyUSA [Link? -- ed.].

Also, in some of these critical states that The Obama Administration will have greater involvement is states with very high unemployment rates. One example is Michigan, where the with its unemployment rate at is over 15 percent. However, The leading Democratic challenger in Michigan, Lt. Governor John Cherry, is not polling well against current Congressman Pete Hoekstra or Attorney General Mike Cox. When Looking at to a potential Mike Cox v. John Cherry match-up, an October 21st poll showed the Lieutenant Governor down fifteen points. [Link? -- ed.] Also expect, you can look at Team Obama putting to put resources into California, Nevada, Oregon, and Rhode Island, in which they were all carried for by Obama in 2008. However, These four states are in the top ten in the nation for unemployment rates along with Michigan. Given growing skepticism with the stimulus bill With how sketpical voters are growing about the Stimulus and with unemployment expected to stay above ten percent next year nationwide, these are governor’s seats Team Obama cannot afford to lose.

Basically, to throwing Creigh Deeds under the bus in Virginia shows that the Democrats are running nervous. In the 19 states that where governor’s races are open seats, the Obama Administration will exercise the most control in with who gets on the ballot and how the campaigns are managed. In simple terms, Rahm Emanuel and Barack Obama are calling the shots. This may motovaite [sic.] Republican, independent, and disaffected Democratic voters to vote against Obama in 2010.

This explains how the Deeds-Obama fallout has nationwide implications across the US in 2010. Lastly, don’t forget to join the North Shore Exponent for our Election Night its coverage of the New Jersey and Virginia Governor’s elections and the NY-23 special congressional election on November 3rd. Election coverage begins at 6:30 PM-EDT/5:30 PM-CDT, one half hour before the polls close in Virginia at 7PM-EDT. We will be on until we have winners in the key races, so please join us.

You're welcome.

As for the actual substance of Maichle's post, maybe we'll get to it later, maybe we won't. We'll see.

Lawton, Bader and the Inevitable Clusterfuck Just Waiting to Show up in a Courtroom Near You

Bravo, Jerry Bader, you truly are an epic fuck up of monumental proportions!

I have to admit that the salacious details of Bader's "scoop" yesterday were just too tantalizing to ignore outright at first, but it didn't take long for us to recall the adage that if something is too good to be true, it probably isn't. Then we actually listened to Bader's "Bonus Listen" and had a pretty good feeling this was all just a ton of bullshit.

Here's the text of the audio. All the emphases below have been added:

Good afternoon, this is Jerry Bader with a "Bonus Listen." This is a follow up to a story breaking in Wisconsin today, Lieutenant governor Barabra Lawton announcing that she will not be a candidate for the Democratic nomination for Governor: This bombshell dropped about 11:00 this morning. She said for very personal reasons.

I've been working the phones all day Here's what I can tell you: I am reporting this factually.

It has been a somewhat open secret in Madison for years that Barbara Lawton has an open marriage and that those relationships she has within the marriage are with other women. This has not been a tightly kept secret, it has been known more than in her inner circle.

I have learned that somebody was about to expose at least one of those relationships. What I am told from sources is a scorned lover -- and the phrase that I heard is "attatched to the building," in their words, a member of the Doyle administration or a staffer of the Doyle administration, a woman, had a relationship with Lawton, she is scorned, and she was going to expose that relationship.

I have been told that she had visual evidence of that relationship. Again, this comes from a number of sources in Madison and I am reporting factually that it is a lover scorned.

Again, I am reporting factually that these are the reasons that Barbara Lawton is not running for Governor, that she has had a gay relationship with a woman who is described as attatched to the building that would mean a staffer.

Obviously this would raise sexual harrassment issues.

Again, this coming at 11:00 this morning -- shocking both sides of the political aisle Barbara Lawton's announcement, nobody saw it coming, she described it as for very personal reasons. Again this comes from multiple sources in Madison. More to come on the show and throughout the day on FaceBook and Twitter and at WTAQ.com.

We couldn't escape Bader's repeated use of the word "factually" throughout his report. Bader could have just said that he heard from reliable sources that so forth, etc. Instead he ascribed factual certainty to his claim -- not once, not twice, but three separate times during his report! No lawyer in his or her right mind would have signed off on that type of language, which likely meant it was not properly vetted. If a legal team didn't look at it, then chances are neither did a fact-checker. There's also no indication that Bader sought a comment from Lawton or her staff, something that would absolutely be required by "actual" journalists when breaking a story of this nature.

Bader's half-ass "correction" is no less asinine, but not for legal or journalistic reasons. It's just a cop out:

11:23 AM STATEMENT FROM JERRY BADER CONCERNING THE BARBARA LAWTON STORY:

I HAVE LOST CONFIDENCE IN THE SOURCES THAT PROVIDED INFORMATION YESTERDAY REGARDING LT. GOV BARBARA LAWTON. THEREFORE I CANNOT STAND BY THE STORY POSTED YESTERDAY.

(use of obnoxious caps in the original)

After you fuck up this royally, you issue a public and personal apology to the person you just slandered. You beg for forgiveness, not shift blame to the credibility of your sources. Yesterday Bader's Blog was bragging about how he had the best Democratic sources of any conservative talk radio host in Wisconsin, but today it's all his sources fault. Bullshit: this is entirely Bader's mess and he would be well-served to own it.

Lawton has every right to be as pissed as she sounds, and if I were the WTAQ management I wouldn't just fire Bader, I would stick his head on a pike and present it to Lawton on a silver plater and hope to God she doesn't include WTAQ in the inevitable legal preceding.

Where All the Ladies At?

Well, so much for going out on a limb...

Forget the "who's in, who's out" story line -- the real news appears to be that there will likely not be primaries in either party next year. That could mean a protracted general election, depending on how and when the eventual candidates choose to start going after each other.

In other words, it's going to be a very long summer.

We're not surprised that Walker's supporters are putting on a happy face at this development, but, really, this isn't good news for them. If Barrett does jump in, he has the full faith and backing of the White House. If Dick Leinenkugel is tapped to wear the mantle, he has name recognition that can't be bought in Wisconsin. Neither opponent is one Walker should prefer to run against if Lawton were the alternative.

Now, back to the original prediction. While I may have been wrong about a woman finally occupying the Governor's mansion, there's still little doubt that women will decide who the next Governor is. If 2010 is just like 2006 in terms of turnout and the demographics of the electorate, then it's possible for the next Governor of Wisconsin to lose the male vote by as much as 12.8% and still win the election so long as he wins women by just one vote. That's a figure that should send panic through the hearts of Walker headquarters.

MORE: Take it away, Ms. Rosenberg.

MORE STILL: So it only took hours for the Walker campaign to switch from the "Doyle-Lawton record" to the "Doyle-Barrett plan" -- way to not skip a beat!

Moderate Republicans Aren't the Reason the GOP has been Losing Congressional Elections, Conservative Republicans Are

Here's a variation of line I've been reading a lot lately:

We have already suffered huge losses because of liberal Republicans why put up with any more? [sic.]

The problem with statements like this is that the evidence doesn't suggest this conclusion at all.

Between 2006 and 2008, 39 House Republicans lost bids for reelection (at least in general elections, a couple were primaried). Four of those races can be considered outliers due to abnormal circumstances: Mark Foley, Bob Nye, Tom DeLay (big time scandals) and Henry Bonilla (crazy redistricting). That leaves a decent pool of 35 GOP House loses to look at.

Of those losing incumbents, 15 had lifetime ratings of 90 or higher (out of 100) from the American Conservative Union (here are the 2006 figures, here are the 2008 numbers). Eight more had ratings of 80+. (If Wisconsin readers need a gauge from which to work, Rep. Jim Sensenbrenner has a rating of 88.). That means about 65% of the GOP congressional incumbents voters told to take a hike during the last two election cycles could be described by at least one measure as being "reliably" conservative, while about half could be classified as "very" conservative.

I'll be the first to admit that this isn't a very scientific way of looking at things. Nearly all of the races GOP incumbents lost in 2006 involved candidates that were tainted by some kind of personal or professional scandal, questions about temperament or some other kind of local issue upon which House races have been known to swing. Still, it's hard to look at these numbers and come to the conclusion that the GOP isn't winning because it isn't conservative enough. In fact, if one only had these figures to work with and none of the pesky electoral context, it would be very difficult to conclude that that key to winning elections would be to demand more cowbell from conservatives.

Just something to consider the next time you hear the Tea bagging brigade going off on the whole Doug Hoffman thing.

[The names of these Congressmen, their home states and individual ACU ratings are included in the comments section (the list was too unwieldy to include on the main page).]

First Wisconsin Bank of 2009 Closes*

Bank of Elmwood goes under, along with six others around the country.

* MORE: Wow, it totally didn't occur to me at the time, but the title could be read as an inference that the financial institution known as First Wisconsin Bank was doing the closing.

It isn't.

My bad.

How Does a College Football Team Lose Twice in One Day?

By coming out $550,000 ahead, that's how.

Ronald Reagan's 11th Commandment Now Optional

Can we now admit that conservatives have been reduced to just cherry-picking his advice to them?

Let the Shit Show Begin!

Palin backs Hoffman in NY-23!

We were hesitant to do so earlier, but I think now would be a good time to bring up the possibility of Palin running as a third party candidate or independent in 2012.

In fact, we think this is the only way she can mount a serious run for the White House, but we'll have more to say about that when we're not about to pass out on the couch.

Homework

If you didn't see Frontline last night -- and chances are you didn't -- go watch the whole episode here.

Then read this Times piece on the brush-off Paul Volcker appears to be getting and note how eerily similar it is to the treatment Brooksley Born received in the aforementioned Frontline episode.

Next, consider the superficiality of this action by the White House in comparison to the actual problem of poorly regulated financial institutions.

Finally, let Nate Silver explain why this is all a big deal.

[We'll probably go into more depth over the Frontline thing later -- there are two absolutely riveting and dramatic moments in the episode that are certainly worthy of more discussion.]

Arguably the Best Cable News Intro Graphic You'll See this Year

[via ANY]

This One Time at Blog Camp ...

Dude, I can handle your homoerotic obsession with Mike Tate, but shit like this has got to go:

I have now made Zach and some of SE Wisconsin’s liberal elite bloggers nervous now. That’s what happens when I get trained at bloggers conferences across the nation and bring these tricks back to Wisconsin.

[...]

I don’t go to conservative bloggers conferences across the nation for nothing. I go to them to be better.

This is What Passes as Humor for Wisconsin Conservatives?

Yeah, this qualifies as offensive:

And conservatives wonder why Latinos vote for Democrats?

The Chief's Inaugural Not-so-Blind Item

What has two thumbs, is a notorious local asshole, runs the shittiest law firm in Oshkosh and whose soul is blacker than the ace of spades?

This guy.

Sarah Palin to Cancel on Appearance in Wisconsin!!!

Her record on these things isn't so good...

But...

Palin's stop in Milwaukee comes 11 days before the former Alaska governor's memoirs will be released.

That could mean she's hired a functional publicist who can schedule an actual book tour. 11 days is a good time hit a place like Milwaukee during the run up to the major media markets.

Only one way to find out!

What's Next? Putting Andrew Dice Clay in Charge of Health Care Policy and Appointing Gallagher Secretary of Agriculture?

Remember this bit from George Carlin:

Evidently, Hugo Chavez wasn't in on the fact that he was just joking.

Radio Daze

/Nelson Muntz Haa-ha:

Suppose an agent arrived in the offices of Limbaugh/Beck/Hannity/O’Reilly etc. with an offer. “I can guarantee you a deal that will pay you twice as much - bring you twice as much fame - and extend your career twice as long - if you’d say the exact opposite of what you are saying now.” Which of them would sign?

My nominations: O’Reilly accepts for sure. Beck likewise almost certainly says yes. Limbaugh would want to think it over, but would ultimately say no. Mark Levin: certainly not. Sean Hannity would need the offer explained a few times. Ann Coulter - that one puzzles me - but probably no. Roger Ailes? Do you even need to ask?

[via RCP]

Seriously, What the Hell is Going on in Upstate New York?

If Tom DeLay were still in the GOP leadership, there would be no way in hell a third party candidate would be allowed to siphon off conservative movement money and support in a competitive House race.

It's really a shocking demonstration of grassroots autonomy from a party envied for its discipline over the last generation, and certainly a worrisome development for the GOP. The fact that Dick Armey -- who clashed with DeLay often during their time in Congress -- seems to be part of the gang adding fuel to this fire only makes this spectacle all the more rich.

I understand that there are more than a few conservatives that are pleased as punch with this development, but I can't see how this wins elections. I also can't help but wonder if conservatives who have grown disenchanted with the GOP for being too moderate will use the NY special election as evidence that they no longer need the Republican Party, regardless of the outcome of the special election.

Call Out Boy

I get a kick out of Kyle Maichle's Northshore Exponent -- there's an earnest obliviousness to the blog that is rarely seen this side of "Kids Say the Darnedest Things," and Maichle's post this morning is a perfect example of that.

First some background. Maichle's been riding DPW Chairman Mike Tate pretty much since he assumed duties earlier this year and evidently an anonymous commenter called him out on it, saying:

Can you explain why you have such a hard-on for Mike Tate? You’ve managed to mention him in almost every single post written on this blog. What is your relationship with this guy?

Maichle goes on to justify his Mike Tate fetish as a service to the community, saying he's taking it upon himself to hold Tate accountable for something. What is not really explained: Tate holds no office. His job as chairman is to pretty much raise money. One of the ways chairs do this is by throwing red meat. We'll let Maichle discover this on his own time, however...

Maichle's at his best when he's tut-tutting the anonymous poster with the righteous indignation of a puritan in a brothel. Take a good hard look at the title of the post:

We are making an inappropraite commenter famous, and now you know his name

Got it? Kinda threatening, sorta evocative of a thundering voice of divine retribution bellowing down from on high, no? Well, after spending most of the post explaining his man crush with Tate, Maichle finally gets down to the calling-out business in the last paragraph:

Lastly, the North Shore Exponent is serving a purpose to hold accountable those who are not held accountable to the mainstream media. Because the right is picking up on the blogs, many on the left will engage in conduct like what this person did to try to discredit hard work. However, any person who makes inappropriate comments on this blog will have their comments publicly admonished and like John McCain said: “I will make ‘em famous and you will all know their names."

I think instead of "to" Maichle meant "in" in the first sentence.

Anyway, for some reason Maichle decides to get all John McCain on us and quote one of the least memorable lines of an otherwise forgettable campaign, but the best part is he never actually calls out the commenter! Seriously, we never once find out what the commenter's name is. Here's Maichle, saying he's gonna make this guy an internationally renown pariah and somewhere on the way to infamy he forgot to, you know, actually call the guy out!

Brilliant!

Teenage Fan Club & De La Soul: "Fallin'"

Is this is Drunkest Man Ever Captured on Video?

Saw this last night and the ever wonderful Wall Street Jackass linked to it this morning:

It's almost 11 minutes long and I couldn't take my eyes off it. Like a great Aristotelian drama it evokes both pity and fear on a truly horrific scale.

Plus the T Pain soundtrack is pretty amusing.

What the Does this Mean?

Really, Widgerson should know better:

I don’t think a successful boycott is likely, but someday the NFL may wonder when it started to lose a significant portion of its fan base. It will have begun when fathers stop looking forward to sitting with their sons on Sundays after church and watching their favorite teams together. It will be when we find that we just have better things to do with our time.

Is he seriously suggesting that Limbaugh not owning the Rams will have a long term impact on the football audience?

A month from now people will have forgotten all about the Limbaugh fiasco because they'll be too busy talking about the play-off race.